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Tag housing

Mortgage rates arisin’

There is a lot of speculation that mortgage rates will rise above 6% once the Government’s different programs run their course (TARP, $8000 New Home Buyer Credit, etc) and financial institutions stop their foolish purchasing. Believe me, this is a good thing. Especially if you have been saving cash to buy a home. High interest rates make everyone’s cash in the transaction more valuable. And reading articles like the one below are indicating exactly that. Now, whether or not the Government steps in with something new to prop things up is anyone’s guess. But if they don’t…watch out. Housing prices would have no where else to go.

LINK

MORTGAGE FINANCING

FHFA reducing Fannie, Freddie portfolios

The federal regulator in charge of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said Tuesday that the mortgage finance giants would not be taking on additional measures to bring down interest rates on home loans as other government programs to stimulate the housing market expire.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency said it is committed to reducing the companies’ mortgage portfolios and does not expect the firms “to be substantial buyers or sellers of mortgages.” The agency said it expects private investors will step in as other government initiatives, such as the Federal Reserve’s trillion-dollar mortgage-acquisition program, wind down.

– Zachary A. Goldfarb

The scary part is that more and more of my friends are walking away from their homes. And this downward pressure on home prices will incite more debt slaves home owners to do just that. Walk away. So where does it stop?

You will never own Real Estate

Its ok, I was there too. For a long time, I hoped and schemed that I could own a home with some property some day. But after spending a exorbinate amount of time (some may even call it obsessing) researching Real Estate, I know that it is an impossible dream. And I see the world, and especially the United States of America very, very differently.
“Bah” you say “I own my home! And I am damn proud of it!”
And to this response, I would argue that there is already a profusion of subterfuge about the very definition. So first we have to quantify what home ownership actually is.
Is home ownership an interest only loan, where the borrower takes out a  125% LTV suckers loan? On their dream property, in order to not have to put anything down?
Is home ownership a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. With the stabibilty in knowing what your monthly is never going to change over the life of the loan?
Or is home ownership when you finally pay of the mortgage, and you owe nothing more to the lender?
(I realize that there are many other financial instruments that we could list concerning housing. But for the sake of argument, I believe that these three represent a solid scale on which to reflect.)
So back to the question at hand. Which of these represent the term “Home Ownership”?
Now the first one is fairly easy to rule out these days. Most everyone has seen these loans explode and so lets just scratch it off the list.
The second one, is probably what the American populace would define as home ownership. But for now, everyone who is reading should be realizing that when you take out a loan on a home, it is actually the bank’s and not yours. So scratch number two.
At this point, most folks would settle on the definition of home ownership. Which is when you own the deed/note flat out, owing nothing to any lender. But if that were the case, then this post would be over. And my take is that most people forget about one very important aspect.
Taxes.
Yeah, good ol’ taxes. And here is where I reason that you never truly own your home. That at any point, the goverment can come and weasel your property away from you. And don’t give me the I have rights bull crap. This only goes as far as the illusion’s need. And if the need is great enough, the illusion falls right along with your rights. It is also my belief that the government is going to do whatever it can to increase taxes over the next decade (just the next decade?). I mean, face it, our nation is broke. We owe a crap load, to a lot of people.
But the land, the land is the real value!
Heh, right, the land. Is it on anything of value that can be sold on the world stage? If not, then I really don’t want the “value”. Especially the taxes that come with it.
So what I have been doing personally is realigning my goals. Understanding that a home, in an of itself, is a depreciating asset at best. And at worst, a depreciating liability when the note is held by a lender. At some point, you will have to invest your reserves into either fixing and maintaining, or all together rebuilding the home (disturbingly similar to a car, no?). And I do not want to be owned by my things. I will not sacrafice myself and my families’ opporutnites in order to make the pipe dream of home ownership into a ball and chain reality.

Its ok, I was there too. For a long time, I hoped and schemed that I could own a home with some property some day. But after spending a exorbinate amount of time (some may even call it obsessing) researching Real Estate, I know that it is an impossible dream. And I see the world, and especially the United States of America very, very differently.

Bah” you say “I own my home! And I am damn proud of it!

And to this response, I would argue that there is already a profusion of subterfuge about the very definition. So first we have to quantify what home ownership actually is.

  1. Is home ownership an interest only loan, where the borrower takes out a  125% LTV suckers loan in order to not have to put any cash down? (On their dream property of course)
  2. Is home ownership a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. With the stability in knowing what your monthly is never going to change over the life of the loan?
  3. Or is home ownership when you finally pay of the mortgage, and you owe nothing more to the lender?

(I realize that there are many other financial instruments that we could list concerning housing. But for the sake of argument, I believe that these three represent a solid scale on which to reflect)

So back to the question at hand. Which of these best represent the term “Home Ownership”?

Now the first one is fairly easy to rule out these days. Most everyone reading this has seen these loans explode. Either by watching family or friends, or experiencing it themselves. And so lets just scratch it off the list.

The second one, is probably what the American populace would define as home ownership. But for now, everyone who is reading needs to understand that when you take out a loan on a home, it is actually the bank’s and not yours. So scratch number two.

At this point, most folks would settle on the definition of home ownership. Which is when you own the deed flat out, owing nothing to any lender. But if that were the case, then this post would be over. And my take is that most people forget about one very important aspect.

Taxes.

Yeah, good ol’ taxes.

And with taxes in mind, here is where I reason that you never truly own your home. That at any point, the goverment can and will come and weasel your property away from you. And don’t give me the I have rights bull crap. These illusionary rights only go as far as their (the government’s) need. And if the need is great, the illusion falls right along with your rights.

But the land, even despite the taxes, the land is the real value!

Heh, right, the land. Is it on anything of value that can be sold on the world stage? If not, then I really don’t want the “value”. Especially the taxes that come with it. It is also my belief that the government is going to do whatever it can to increase taxes over the next decade (just the next decade?). I mean, face it, our nation is broke. We owe a crap load, to a lot of people.

But don’t worry, it is nothing to be afraid of, you just need to understand it. Once you realize that with most current home purchases you are only buying the “right” to further taxation, you are good.

I mean, think of it this way. Do you think I sat there after my brother died thinking

“Man, I am glad that Jaye got to see our new place before he passed away!”

Hell no!!!

I was happy that we had the money to make memories with him by going on trips and other awesome adventures through out his life.

And so the target must be ”buying” a home when it becomes less expensive than renting while projecting future tax increases into the model. Along with the understanding that a home, in an of itself, is a depreciating asset at best. And at worst, a depreciating liability when the note is held by a lender. At some point, you will have to invest your reserves into either fixing and maintaining, or all together rebuilding the home (disturbingly similar to a car, no?). And even with this, you must know emotionally that it will never be truly yours. And this is a good thing.

I personally do not want to be owned by my things. I will not sacrifice myself and my families’ opportunities in order to make the pipe dream of home ownership into a ball and chain reality. I plan on using my surplus cash to MAKE MEMORIES!!! That is the real value.

Despite these current beliefs, I am always open to new ideas. Because you can’t learn something new if you are not willing to listen right? And I appreciate people’s thoughts, even if I don’t always agree. So I would be happy to hear other’s perspective on this. And so I leave you with this.

“Why do you personally want to own a home?”

Bernanke is a joke

This whole financial disaster is just a crock! Hop in the way back machine and travel with me to an age of kool-aid and greed.

Back in 05′ I was just a wee grass hopper, only twenty four years of age. And the world was a hustling and a bustling. Everywhere, people were going a million miles a minute, especially in Bend Oregon.

If you were to ask the people around you what they were running around so much for, the would have answered, “Well, I’m building wealth of course”. And as I have mentioned before on this blog, everyone was chiming the same freaking lines. The most basic of which was “BUY REAL ESTATE”.

“But why?” I would ask.

“Kid, haven’t you heard? Real estate only goes up.” they would all say.

So what does a guy like me do? I research the crap out of the housing market, which leads me to try and understand economics and markets in general (stock, emerging, etc). I realise that things “are not adding up” and soon conclude that we have a serious bubble on our hands. And it will not end well.

Also, I ended up warning my friends (or trying to). But did any of my friends listen to me? Nope. I even went so far as to write a program to scrape housing data from the county website to prove my stupid point. And what do most of my friends face today? Either foreclosures, short sales, or high mortgage payments.

And so I sit with my little munchkin in my arms and wonder. If little ol’ Jared could see what was happening, why couldn’t Ben Bernanke? And I’ll tell you why, because Ben Bernanke is a frickin joke.

For Closure

bend_oregon_foreclosure

I saw this sign over the weekend and it caught my eye, so I took a picture.  Losing your personal residence can be a very traumatic event. Especially to the adult who has labored and chored to provide not just a house, but a home for their family. Yet here, in this picture, a child (assumedly) has drawn a ‘heart’ and a ’star’ to decorate the sign. And the more I thought about the event (foreclosure) and how a child perceives it, the more hope filled my vision as I looked upon the sign.

So I ask a simple question to anyone who wants to answer.

“What does foreclosure look like to a kid?”

Copyright © Jared Folkins
Programming, Computers, Writing, Economics, and Life

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