Right now, there is a lot of talk concerning our landlord neighbor to the east. And it is hard to decypher what is the truth. How can we answer questions like;

• Is the rapid expansion of lending in 2009 leading to a catastrophic bubble in China?
• Are the growth numbers that came out for Q4 acurate or are they simply puff?
• How committed to understanding China should I be?

The only one of these that I can out right answer is the last one. Yes. You should be very committed to learning all you can about our owners friends. Which brings me to Michael Pettis. He is an author and professor at the Peking University Business School and with this position, he has the unique advantage of working/learning/living in the country of interest.

Blog
Bio
Books (Sorry Dunc)

The depth of his knowledge is vast. And when I first started my self motivated education five years ago, on real estate and world markets, Michael’s blog would have been a challenge to read. But I encourage everyone, to read his stuff. It is just that good.

Take his post on currencies.

Already some of my students whose parents own their own businesses have been telling me that Chinese speculative money held abroad is flowing back into the country.  One of my students from rich coastal city Wenzhou, the most free-wheeling and business-savvy city in China, and perhaps the world, just rolled his eyes when I asked him if his family and friends were tying to bring money into the country.  “Of course,” he said.  I didn’t get the impression that he thought mine was an especially astute question.

That is the type of “on the ground” perspective that Michael can offer. Which helps me out a lot. For a while I watched the dollar as it tanked into the 70′s. Wondering if we were going to break lower. Michael’s post on the dire straights of other world economies and their fiat currencies was enlightening. It made me realize that holding US dollars (right now) is not that absolute worst position in the world (though not the best). Maybe I should own more RMB.

Also, I personally would love to go to a school like this.

a) Economics and fianance are a real passion/hobby of mine

b) The Chinese market will be an area of continued growth

Learning from a school in China would be extremely insightful into how the Chinese people think. Also, learning the language would be a great tool towards anyone’s career.

And now I will bring up someone who is a buddy of mine. The dude is totally brilliant. His name is Tony Bivens and he is currently completing a degree in linguistics from a University in Thailand (Tony, I know you read this, so post in the comments about the University if you get time).

I think his degree will be highly effective in his future career. As the world drifts from the US being the sole super power, we will have a great need for accurate communication with many emerging countries. So I am envious of Tony a wee bit. I see him as having a ton of opportunity. I only wish he blogged a tad more so I could read up on his thoughts. Though I really enjoy our skype conversations.

Jared.Out()

“Thank you for all your hard work” his boss says “We really appreciate it”

Words are not easy for him, so he doesn’t speak. Only smiles and nods and blinks. He doesn’t say that the software was challenging to write. That there was a hard segment that stormed against him for weeks. And were it not for his diligence and effort, would have way-laid the project by months.

He does not say that the elegance found in file ‘Algorithm_search.c’ was something that the great artist Michelangelo would have been proud of. He had removed several thousand lines of code, and then optimized it in turn. This had increased the speed of the algorithm by over 80%.

He doesn’t mention that he has not slept well for several weeks. Not the pressures of the job, no far from it. More that he is concerned of what the code he is creating will eventually do.

“What do you mean they are upgrading the software?” he can hear the worker asking. “I’ve labored here for over twenty-five years! Now some dumb machine is going to do better than me?”

The programmer feels bad. So he emails his boss the next day and asks him if maybe they are not doing the right thing. If maybe they are hurting people.

“No-way-jose!” his boss cheerily says “This next version we are releasing is going to be great!”

So the programmer tunes out his feelings and sits at his desk. There, he strikes the keys of his keyboard in patterned order. There, he concentrates and blinks. Blurring away the passing of time.

Now, he looks down at his wrinkled hand, spotted with age. Extended out before him in supposed congratulatory offering as it shakes it’s partner. The hand of his new and much younger boss. “Thank you for all your awesome work!” his boss says “We couldn’t have asked for a better employee and are sorry to see you go.”

Go? The programmer wonders. Where am I going?

“I fought to keep you, I truly did. But the share holders, they see you and your team as excess now that we have the creator-program finished.”

The programmer gulps and shuffles his feet. Fear gripping so hard that he feels the squeaking of soles on the expensive tile beneath. It vibrates his clenched teeth.

“You do understand don’t you?” the man that was his boss asks “I mean, what logic is it to keep a group of employees now that we have the God of programs? A program that can create others in it’s own image.”

The programmer could find no error in his logic. The recession and the damage resulting from it, only amplified the argument. So he dropped his head, and stared down at the cardboard box that he gripped between bicep and forearm. There, in the box, were nicknacks from thirty years of employment. From a life-time of work.

“It’s probably all for the best” the chipper tone sounding as artificial as the programmer currently felt. “I am sure you are on to bigger and better things.” His previously new boss smiled as he let go the hand-shake.

The programmer looked up, away from the box. His eyes setting hard on his former new bosses gaze. And he knows not what to say. Words are never easy for him, so he doesn’t speak. Only smiles and nods and blinks.

“Something pure please” we say  “Something charity sweet”

We demand, but never for the real. Give us trickery and fake, we surely do love it, we demand.

“Let us consume their work” we say “Then claim it as ours”

But how can we? A lie doesn’t last.  The half life is known to give, break, and then expunge. And the world is wising to the truth. The real truth. And what is real truth you ask? Isn’t truth simply that, truth?

Fool!

Truth is only what we make it. Counted and ordered, stationed and postured, Guns and Ammo. Truth is always created when taken.

Don’t think like us? Be{oh-so}ware.

Don’t talk like us? Befuckin{oh-so}scared.

Like only goliaths can, we will boast and kill. And enforce ours, encroach yours, and win. We will it, we name it, this is our truth.

But you are wising, you already have. To the thought that maybe that which was stolen was actually you giving. Surely deception, but not one we can repeat. Not one in which you will accept.

“Something pure please” we whisper  “Something charity sweet”

But at your knowing, you will stop. And when you do, we will fail.