acloudtree

Tag bend

Top 5 Bend blog predictions for 2010

Everywhere you turn this time of year, you have people making predictions. They are all interesting, but after reading them I have to laugh. One could no sooner hit a mosquito with a bb-gun then predict anything accurately (And in these economic times no less). So it becomes a pathetic guessing game. And with that, here are my simple guesses for 2010. And I am picking on the locals, who I hope realize that all this snark is a compliment.

best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever had
This year, our much beloved Duncan McGeary will take a vacation from both Blogging and Work (OMG!?! I know right!). Oddly enough reports start coming in from FoxNews CNN MSNBC reliable news sources that Hell has frozen over. Upon hearing this, Linda and Dunc decide to go take their icy holiday in Hell for a quote “Righteous ice fishing trip dude!” as well as visiting the historic set of  ”Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey”. While there, the happy couple will also learn that the best selling board game in Hell is “The Settlers of Satan” (Say-tawn), where alas, Satan always wins. Never the less, good times had by all!

UtterlyBoring
Jake Ortman will sit down at his desk, boot up his computer, open his favorite web browser, and stumble across a cold and deadly truth. There is no longer any Time to kill. So successful were his “Time Killing” posts, that Time suffered a fatal blow in 2009.  For what should have been several weeks (were Time to still be alive) Jake will find himself in a near anemic stupor. But finally,  Jake will set into motion a new diabolical plan. Being both a Blogger and a fan of  phonetics, he will start off on a horrific killing spree with his series of “Thyme Killing” posts targeting both the spice and the Japanese band.  (Mwhahahahaha!)

BendBubble2
Seeing the failings of the Democrats to do anything worthwhile in two years and having a gift for sensing weakness, BendBubble2’s Paul-Doh shuts down his blog and announces that he is running for Jesus. “I think this is the right time for it.” Paul says when asked about his reasoning “The Dems have been pathetic and Jesus is a deity and political position that I was born for. The prophetic nature of my blog, along with my strategic use of the ‘F’ word, will easily help the transition from blogger savant to savior of souls“. Sadly the campaign poster of an Anglo-Saxon Paul-Doh, with creamy skin, blue eyes, flowing brown hair, and clothed in a blue and white robe while holding two swim-suit clad women under each arm, does nothing to garner support. (Pundits will eventually argue that it actually weakened his message)

HackBend
Jon Abernathy surprisingly rues the day “The Brew Site” was able to supply him with an all-you-can-drink alcoholic beverage buffet. In a drunken haze some time during June and while trying to sober up, he will access his HackBend blog over an unencrypted wireless network at one of the many coffee shops around Bend. The packet containing his username and password will be garnished by a 15 year old taking a break from an eighteen hour WoW marathon. The teen will then proceed to hack “HackBend” leaving the message “You’ve been h@x0r’d!!! All your base are belong to us!on the index page of HackBend’s site. Oh the irony!

My Back Pages
After seeing Avatar in 3D, Jesse Felder makes a bullish move and goes long on Pandora. “I believe that the unobtanium stock pile that exists beneath the surface of Pandora is where the market is headed” Jesse will state on record. He will then go on to research the world of Pandora, even going as far as calling James Cameron to ask for insider tips on when “The Company” will IPO and release their market shattering quarterly. James’ people will eventually leave a brief voicemail message that states “Dude, we realize that the movie contains ground breaking CGI and sweet 3D cinematography leading to the very edge of realism, but thats all it was, a movie.”

Congrats to everyone who made it in the Top 5 this year, and a happy holidays to all!

-peace

You will never own Real Estate

Its ok, I was there too. For a long time, I hoped and schemed that I could own a home with some property some day. But after spending a exorbinate amount of time (some may even call it obsessing) researching Real Estate, I know that it is an impossible dream. And I see the world, and especially the United States of America very, very differently.
“Bah” you say “I own my home! And I am damn proud of it!”
And to this response, I would argue that there is already a profusion of subterfuge about the very definition. So first we have to quantify what home ownership actually is.
Is home ownership an interest only loan, where the borrower takes out a  125% LTV suckers loan? On their dream property, in order to not have to put anything down?
Is home ownership a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. With the stabibilty in knowing what your monthly is never going to change over the life of the loan?
Or is home ownership when you finally pay of the mortgage, and you owe nothing more to the lender?
(I realize that there are many other financial instruments that we could list concerning housing. But for the sake of argument, I believe that these three represent a solid scale on which to reflect.)
So back to the question at hand. Which of these represent the term “Home Ownership”?
Now the first one is fairly easy to rule out these days. Most everyone has seen these loans explode and so lets just scratch it off the list.
The second one, is probably what the American populace would define as home ownership. But for now, everyone who is reading should be realizing that when you take out a loan on a home, it is actually the bank’s and not yours. So scratch number two.
At this point, most folks would settle on the definition of home ownership. Which is when you own the deed/note flat out, owing nothing to any lender. But if that were the case, then this post would be over. And my take is that most people forget about one very important aspect.
Taxes.
Yeah, good ol’ taxes. And here is where I reason that you never truly own your home. That at any point, the goverment can come and weasel your property away from you. And don’t give me the I have rights bull crap. This only goes as far as the illusion’s need. And if the need is great enough, the illusion falls right along with your rights. It is also my belief that the government is going to do whatever it can to increase taxes over the next decade (just the next decade?). I mean, face it, our nation is broke. We owe a crap load, to a lot of people.
But the land, the land is the real value!
Heh, right, the land. Is it on anything of value that can be sold on the world stage? If not, then I really don’t want the “value”. Especially the taxes that come with it.
So what I have been doing personally is realigning my goals. Understanding that a home, in an of itself, is a depreciating asset at best. And at worst, a depreciating liability when the note is held by a lender. At some point, you will have to invest your reserves into either fixing and maintaining, or all together rebuilding the home (disturbingly similar to a car, no?). And I do not want to be owned by my things. I will not sacrafice myself and my families’ opporutnites in order to make the pipe dream of home ownership into a ball and chain reality.

Its ok, I was there too. For a long time, I hoped and schemed that I could own a home with some property some day. But after spending a exorbinate amount of time (some may even call it obsessing) researching Real Estate, I know that it is an impossible dream. And I see the world, and especially the United States of America very, very differently.

Bah” you say “I own my home! And I am damn proud of it!

And to this response, I would argue that there is already a profusion of subterfuge about the very definition. So first we have to quantify what home ownership actually is.

  1. Is home ownership an interest only loan, where the borrower takes out a  125% LTV suckers loan in order to not have to put any cash down? (On their dream property of course)
  2. Is home ownership a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. With the stability in knowing what your monthly is never going to change over the life of the loan?
  3. Or is home ownership when you finally pay of the mortgage, and you owe nothing more to the lender?

(I realize that there are many other financial instruments that we could list concerning housing. But for the sake of argument, I believe that these three represent a solid scale on which to reflect)

So back to the question at hand. Which of these best represent the term “Home Ownership”?

Now the first one is fairly easy to rule out these days. Most everyone reading this has seen these loans explode. Either by watching family or friends, or experiencing it themselves. And so lets just scratch it off the list.

The second one, is probably what the American populace would define as home ownership. But for now, everyone who is reading needs to understand that when you take out a loan on a home, it is actually the bank’s and not yours. So scratch number two.

At this point, most folks would settle on the definition of home ownership. Which is when you own the deed flat out, owing nothing to any lender. But if that were the case, then this post would be over. And my take is that most people forget about one very important aspect.

Taxes.

Yeah, good ol’ taxes.

And with taxes in mind, here is where I reason that you never truly own your home. That at any point, the goverment can and will come and weasel your property away from you. And don’t give me the I have rights bull crap. These illusionary rights only go as far as their (the government’s) need. And if the need is great, the illusion falls right along with your rights.

But the land, even despite the taxes, the land is the real value!

Heh, right, the land. Is it on anything of value that can be sold on the world stage? If not, then I really don’t want the “value”. Especially the taxes that come with it. It is also my belief that the government is going to do whatever it can to increase taxes over the next decade (just the next decade?). I mean, face it, our nation is broke. We owe a crap load, to a lot of people.

But don’t worry, it is nothing to be afraid of, you just need to understand it. Once you realize that with most current home purchases you are only buying the “right” to further taxation, you are good.

I mean, think of it this way. Do you think I sat there after my brother died thinking

“Man, I am glad that Jaye got to see our new place before he passed away!”

Hell no!!!

I was happy that we had the money to make memories with him by going on trips and other awesome adventures through out his life.

And so the target must be ”buying” a home when it becomes less expensive than renting while projecting future tax increases into the model. Along with the understanding that a home, in an of itself, is a depreciating asset at best. And at worst, a depreciating liability when the note is held by a lender. At some point, you will have to invest your reserves into either fixing and maintaining, or all together rebuilding the home (disturbingly similar to a car, no?). And even with this, you must know emotionally that it will never be truly yours. And this is a good thing.

I personally do not want to be owned by my things. I will not sacrifice myself and my families’ opportunities in order to make the pipe dream of home ownership into a ball and chain reality. I plan on using my surplus cash to MAKE MEMORIES!!! That is the real value.

Despite these current beliefs, I am always open to new ideas. Because you can’t learn something new if you are not willing to listen right? And I appreciate people’s thoughts, even if I don’t always agree. So I would be happy to hear other’s perspective on this. And so I leave you with this.

“Why do you personally want to own a home?”

How to research Real Estate in Bend, Oregon

Overview: I have been tracking and researching homes for over five years. Because of my research, I knew that we were in a housing bubble. And so I stayed out of the market, on the side lines, waiting. Below, is a very common research technique that I use, to learn more about homes that interest me.

Full Disclosure: I own no real estate, I don’t, nor have I ever worked for a Real Estate Agent, a Bank, or a Mortgage broker. I am just a nerd. :)

1) Find a house using the MLS, Zillow, or whatever site gives you the best access to the homes you like. Important! The house must have a posted address. In this first screen shot, I am using the site www.centraloregonrealtors.com, and I found a house that I have watched for a while. It’s current MLS # (though it has had many) is 2903276.

MLS_example

2) You can see that on the bottom of the ad, there is a address. So I hightlight the area, right click, and copy the address to my clipboard.

RightClick

3) I then head over to the Deschutes county web application known as D.I.A.L (click the link).

Dial

4) We are mainly interested in this area right here.

Dial_search_area

5) Click the ‘Check All’ button, then select the ‘Street Address’ radio button, and finally paste the address that you found from a Real Estate site and click submit.

dial_search_critera

6) In this case you are presented with the following screen.

Dial_output

NOTE: There is a lot of data here, so I am going to break it down for you.

a) This is the Deschutes county liability section. For the most part, you can ignore this.

                    DISCLAIMER AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

     Information on the Deschutes County Computer is not guaranteed to be
accurate and may contain errors and omissions.  Deschutes County provides NO
WARRANTY AS TO THE MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE FOR
ANY INFORMATION.  Original records may differ from computer entries.  If
reliance upon computer record is intended, verification of information on
source documents is required.  User expressly acknowledges and agrees that
the use of any information appearing on the Deschutes County Computer is at
User's sole risk.  Deschutes County shall not be liable for any direct,
indirect, incidental, or consequential damages caused by mistakes, omissions,
deletions, errors, defects, in any information, or any failure or delays in
receiving information.  The following property tax assessment data is updated
nightly.

b) This next section starts to get interesting. The three primary things you will see, is the current owners names, the loan originator, and the address.

Account: 184388  Map/TL: R 1-001 171230 DB 04900    

* * *  CURRENT Ownership Information ONLY 

SILVER,MATT J
BLUE,CATHERINE C
2332 NW CANDLELIGHT PL
BEND  OR  97701-5450

THRU:  Bank of America Commercial Loan Service
AGENT: BAC (P)

Site Address: 2332 NW CANDLELIGHT PL  BEND 97701

Assessor Property Description
CITY VIEW PHASE II Lot: 24

Prop Cls:101  MA:5  VA:26  NH 013  Vol-Page:  2006-12233
Asmt Zone:RS  CDD Zone:BEND (CITY OF BEND)

***  Land Values  ***
    Asmt type                                     R.M.V.
    URBAN LOT                                   180,900
    LA                                            4,500
    SD                                            3,000
   *Total                                       188,400

***  Improvement Values  ***
     FB        $ R.M.V.            BLT %GD
    153        289,850            2005

c) And here is the property description and the attributes on record of said property. It also has a summary of the property’s sales, but I usually head farther down the document, for the more descriptive sales information.

***  Land Values  ***
    Asmt type                                     R.M.V.
    URBAN LOT                                   180,900
    LA                                            4,500
    SD                                            3,000
   *Total                                       188,400

***  Improvement Values  ***
     FB        $ R.M.V.            BLT %GD
    153        289,850            2005
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

    Room Grid for 153    Total SqFt: 2521
                                - - - - - - - R O O M S - - - - - - -
                                       LR K DR FAM BD BATH OTH FP UTL
                  Sq Ft: 1541  1st Fl   1 1  1     1   1\1      1  1
                          980  2nd Fl           1  3   1
                         1010  Garage                               

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

***** Values shown below are as of the Assessment Date, January 1 of each year *****

***      --------2009--------     --------2008--------     ---------2007--------
          Total       Taxable      Total       Taxable      Total        Taxable
           RMV          A.V.        RMV          A.V.        RMV           A.V.
LND:     188,400                  220,320                  233,900
IMP:     289,850                  341,000                  344,440
TOT:     478,250      237,490     561,320      230,580     578,340       223,870
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

SALES: --- 1 ---   --- 2 ---   --- 3 ---   --- 4 ---
  Date 02-17-06    09-30-04    02-02-95    12-27-93
Sale $ 639800      96000       41705       37900
 Cndtn 30          33          30          30
 Class 101         100         100         100
Inst # 2006-12233  2004-61118  1995-36429821993-3242218
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

d) And here is the very detailed sales information. The thing to note, is that the SELLER is on the LEFT and the BUYER is on the RIGHT. If you are paying close attention, you will also notice that the current owner looks to have paid $639,800 in February of 2006, but up in our MLS ad, the owner is asking $299,900. We can deduce that the most likely scenario in our current economic environment is a SHORT SALE.

Sales Detail Information

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vol Page 2006-12233      Sales Date 02/17/06   Adjusted Sales Price    $639,800

   Sales Code 30    UNCONFIRMED SALE

Grantor:                                  Grantee:

ROGERS, SCOTT M & ALLISON M               SILVER, MATT J & BLUE, CATHERINE C
                                          1612 NW KINGSTON
BEND OR 97709                             BEND OR 97701                           

***
Site Address: 2332 NW CANDLELIGHT PL  BEND 97701
Assessor Property Description
CITY VIEW PHASE II Lot: 24

Acct 184388    Map/TL: R 1-001 171230 DB 04900
  MA: 5   VA: 26  Class: 101  

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vol Page 2004-61118      Sales Date 09/30/04   Adjusted Sales Price     $96,000

   Sales Code 33    CONFIRMED SALE

Grantor:                                  Grantee:

SHEASGREEN,ALAN                           ROGERS, SCOTT M & ALLISON M
8309 SE LIESER POINT DR
VANCOUVER WA 98664                        BEND OR 97709                           

***
Site Address: 2332 NW CANDLELIGHT PL  BEND 97701
Assessor Property Description
CITY VIEW PHASE II Lot: 24

Acct 184388    Map/TL: R 1-001 171230 DB 04900
  MA: 5   VA: 26  Class: 100  

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vol Page 1995-3642982    Sales Date 02/02/95   Adjusted Sales Price     $41,705

   Sales Code 30    UNCONFIRMED SALE

Grantor:                                  Grantee:

LEWIS,JAMES R                             SHEASGREEN,ALAN
2518 NW GOODWILLIE CT                     8309 SE LIESER POINT DR
BEND OR 97701                             VANCOUVER WA 98664                      

***
Site Address: 2332 NW CANDLELIGHT PL  BEND 97701
Assessor Property Description
CITY VIEW PHASE II Lot: 24

Acct 184388    Map/TL: R 1-001 171230 DB 04900
  MA: 5   VA: 26  Class: 100  

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vol Page 1993-3242218    Sales Date 12/27/93   Adjusted Sales Price     $37,900

   Sales Code 30    UNCONFIRMED SALE

Grantor:                                  Grantee:

CITY HEIGHTS INC                          LEWIS,JAMES R
1070 NW BOND STE 203                      2321 NW TORSWAY ST
BEND OR 97701                             BEND OR 97701                           

***
Site Address: 2332 NW CANDLELIGHT PL  BEND 97701
Assessor Property Description
CITY VIEW PHASE II Lot: 24

Acct 184388    Map/TL: R 1-001 171230 DB 04900
  MA: 5   VA: 26  Class: 100  

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

d) Further down, there is tax and other information, but this is not really needed for our tutorial so I will skip the description.

7) Highlight the primary owner’s name, right click, and copy it to your clipboard.

owner_highlight

8 ) Now, head over to the Deschutes County clerk site by clicking the link. The first screen you will see will be a disclaimer. Go ahead and click ‘I Accept’ after reading.

CountyClerkDisclaimer

9) The next page will be the search page, go ahead and copy in the name of the current owner on the property that we are researching.

ClerkSearchCriteria

10) After clicking ‘Search’, you should see the following screen (or fairly close to it)

ClerkResults

11) Now, the thing that jumps out at me is the second document. The Doc Type: is Notice of Default & Election to Sell which means that this record is going to be foreclosed on. Let click on the link title 2009-036611 and see what information we get. Our goal here is to track down the relevant documents pertaining to the property we are researching. You should get the following screen.

clerkDefault

12) Do you see that link at the bottom of the screen? The one that says 2006-078298? Do you also see the words Deed of  Trust / Mortgage? Well, that is the original mortgage document. Go ahead and click on the 2006-078298 link.

ClerkRecord

13) At this point, I would click on the link that says View Document Image and a .pdf of the actual mortgage will open. You can see a lot of useful information. After you are done taking a gander, head back a page to the Notice of Default record.

clerkDefault

14) Click on the View Document Image and you will again download a .pdf, but I will point out several pieces of information. The first is that you can see the address and the second is that you will find the date the home will potentially be sold on the county steps.

address

Date of sale and location of sale.

date_of_auction

Conclusion: This home is going to be auctioned on the first day of 2010. So I can’t see how it is possible that a sale will go through. For what its worth, this is what will most likely happen with this property.

  1. It will go up for auction
  2. The bank will ask too much for it so it won’t sell
  3. The bank will then place the home on the market for close to the original loan amount
  4. The home will sit empty for the next several years, falling into disrepair

At least that is what I have been seeing…

Anyway, I hope this will help you get started in making an educated buying decision. And something else that I always ask myself.

Who is making money off of me?

In this case…

  • Your Real Estate Agent
  • The Seller’s Real Estate Agent
  • The Seller
  • The Mortgage Broker
  • The Bank

And I have found it very helpful not to trust the opinions of those who will make money off of me. Their motivations are different than mine. I guess what I am saying, is that ultimately you need to make a sound decision based on your own research, and not the sales techniques or encouragement of others. The list of professions above, and the people who work in them, have screwed a lot of people, in the past five years especially. So don’t get hosed.

If readers find this information helpful, let me know. I have other food for thought things to share concerning RE.

-later

Bernanke is a joke

This whole financial disaster is just a crock! Hop in the way back machine and travel with me to an age of kool-aid and greed.

Back in 05′ I was just a wee grass hopper, only twenty four years of age. And the world was a hustling and a bustling. Everywhere, people were going a million miles a minute, especially in Bend Oregon.

If you were to ask the people around you what they were running around so much for, the would have answered, “Well, I’m building wealth of course”. And as I have mentioned before on this blog, everyone was chiming the same freaking lines. The most basic of which was “BUY REAL ESTATE”.

“But why?” I would ask.

“Kid, haven’t you heard? Real estate only goes up.” they would all say.

So what does a guy like me do? I research the crap out of the housing market, which leads me to try and understand economics and markets in general (stock, emerging, etc). I realise that things “are not adding up” and soon conclude that we have a serious bubble on our hands. And it will not end well.

Also, I ended up warning my friends (or trying to). But did any of my friends listen to me? Nope. I even went so far as to write a program to scrape housing data from the county website to prove my stupid point. And what do most of my friends face today? Either foreclosures, short sales, or high mortgage payments.

And so I sit with my little munchkin in my arms and wonder. If little ol’ Jared could see what was happening, why couldn’t Ben Bernanke? And I’ll tell you why, because Ben Bernanke is a frickin joke.

Copyright © Jared Folkins
Programming, Computers, Writing, Economics, and Life

Powered by WordPress