acloudtree

Category oregon

Shadows lurking

I read Tim Duy’s post “It’s Not About Interest Rates Yet” and Tim left me in a deep think state. As Tim points out, the government program to buy Mortgage Backed Securities is set to end. But it now sounds like they may (surprise, surprise) extend the program. And reading this, it was yet further confirmation to one of my key beliefs about Real Estate. You see, many people do not seem to realize the scale of  government intervention with the National Real Estate market. Others that are in the know, probably see the government as simply distorting demand. But in actuality the government IS the demand being both mouth and stomach. They are the loan holder, the real estate buyer, and everything in between. And with the government at the center of housing, the inflated prices are just another form of shadow tax. One that no person is able to articulate or describe to their friends. Because we as tax payers are conditioned to believe that taxation happens mainly on our pay check or in the annual ritual of filing our 1040. So to those looking to buy, how can you, I, or anyone possibly hope to compete against this? In my opinion we can’t. We can only wait until the demand is gone.

Speaking of shadows, I think the word “shadow” epitomizes the MSM (Main stream media) and even the local boys (IE, Bulletin, KTVZ, etc). It is why I thoroughly inspect every nugget of supposed news that is reported. For there exists something at every major news corporation that lurks in the shadows. Just like shadow statistics, shadow inventory, shadow tax, this one is known as shadow opinion. The thought came to me a while back when reading an OP-ED piece from the Bulletin. Some where along the line, the newspaper came up with the idea that if they put the word “Opinion” in the title, it would let the reader know that the article was the opinion of the writer. Also implying to us, the readers, that the rest of the written document is news. In actuality and truth, we should know that the news is all opinion. The paper, magazine, news channel or what have you has an opinion about all things. And should you listen closely on when, if, or how things are published, you can hear the true “Voice” of any given media outlet.

But I think Duncan over at BMW is right in his ongoing subtle analysis of the MSM. The bloggers seem to have an edge on them. At least they have a much tighter voice. Usually being written by one person, or at most, a handful of people. And about a specific topic no less. Plus the scope and draw of the content is on the ground and global. As these folks can be or are, literally, all over the world. Instead of watching or reading the MSM as it regurgitates the same garbage over and over again, my opinion (heh) is that listening to the voices of many bloggers of all creeds is a much better representation of actual News.

Finally, it was funny this morning, because as I was sitting at breakfast today clicking through my RSS reader. I pulled back from the individual articles, and took a long look at all the blogs that I love to read. Suddenly an image of my father sitting at my childhood breakfast table thumbing through his paper filled my thoughts. This struck me, because I know that this will be an image that my daughter will never have.

Internet services for a nerd in Central Oregon?

Currently this blog along with some of my other projects are on a shared hosting platform. As some of my ideas get crazier and crazier, I realize that I need to compile several of the dependencies myself and this has been extremely problematic with my shared host. So what solutions do local geeks use?

Do you self host with a reserved static IP?
Do you collocate at a facility?
Do you rent a dedicated server?

Comments or emails are welcome and thanks in advance!

jared.folkins[at]gmail[dot]com

Top 5 Bend blog predictions for 2010

Everywhere you turn this time of year, you have people making predictions. They are all interesting, but after reading them I have to laugh. One could no sooner hit a mosquito with a bb-gun then predict anything accurately (And in these economic times no less). So it becomes a pathetic guessing game. And with that, here are my simple guesses for 2010. And I am picking on the locals, who I hope realize that all this snark is a compliment.

best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever had
This year, our much beloved Duncan McGeary will take a vacation from both Blogging and Work (OMG!?! I know right!). Oddly enough reports start coming in from FoxNews CNN MSNBC reliable news sources that Hell has frozen over. Upon hearing this, Linda and Dunc decide to go take their icy holiday in Hell for a quote “Righteous ice fishing trip dude!” as well as visiting the historic set of  ”Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey”. While there, the happy couple will also learn that the best selling board game in Hell is “The Settlers of Satan” (Say-tawn), where alas, Satan always wins. Never the less, good times had by all!

UtterlyBoring
Jake Ortman will sit down at his desk, boot up his computer, open his favorite web browser, and stumble across a cold and deadly truth. There is no longer any Time to kill. So successful were his “Time Killing” posts, that Time suffered a fatal blow in 2009.  For what should have been several weeks (were Time to still be alive) Jake will find himself in a near anemic stupor. But finally,  Jake will set into motion a new diabolical plan. Being both a Blogger and a fan of  phonetics, he will start off on a horrific killing spree with his series of “Thyme Killing” posts targeting both the spice and the Japanese band.  (Mwhahahahaha!)

BendBubble2
Seeing the failings of the Democrats to do anything worthwhile in two years and having a gift for sensing weakness, BendBubble2′s Paul-Doh shuts down his blog and announces that he is running for Jesus. “I think this is the right time for it.” Paul says when asked about his reasoning “The Dems have been pathetic and Jesus is a deity and political position that I was born for. The prophetic nature of my blog, along with my strategic use of the ‘F’ word, will easily help the transition from blogger savant to savior of souls“. Sadly the campaign poster of an Anglo-Saxon Paul-Doh, with creamy skin, blue eyes, flowing brown hair, and clothed in a blue and white robe while holding two swim-suit clad women under each arm, does nothing to garner support. (Pundits will eventually argue that it actually weakened his message)

HackBend
Jon Abernathy surprisingly rues the day “The Brew Site” was able to supply him with an all-you-can-drink alcoholic beverage buffet. In a drunken haze some time during June and while trying to sober up, he will access his HackBend blog over an unencrypted wireless network at one of the many coffee shops around Bend. The packet containing his username and password will be garnished by a 15 year old taking a break from an eighteen hour WoW marathon. The teen will then proceed to hack “HackBend” leaving the message “You’ve been h@x0r’d!!! All your base are belong to us!on the index page of HackBend’s site. Oh the irony!

My Back Pages
After seeing Avatar in 3D, Jesse Felder makes a bullish move and goes long on Pandora. “I believe that the unobtanium stock pile that exists beneath the surface of Pandora is where the market is headed” Jesse will state on record. He will then go on to research the world of Pandora, even going as far as calling James Cameron to ask for insider tips on when “The Company” will IPO and release their market shattering quarterly. James’ people will eventually leave a brief voicemail message that states “Dude, we realize that the movie contains ground breaking CGI and sweet 3D cinematography leading to the very edge of realism, but thats all it was, a movie.”

Congrats to everyone who made it in the Top 5 this year, and a happy holidays to all!

-peace

You will never own Real Estate

Its ok, I was there too. For a long time, I hoped and schemed that I could own a home with some property some day. But after spending a exorbinate amount of time (some may even call it obsessing) researching Real Estate, I know that it is an impossible dream. And I see the world, and especially the United States of America very, very differently.
“Bah” you say “I own my home! And I am damn proud of it!”
And to this response, I would argue that there is already a profusion of subterfuge about the very definition. So first we have to quantify what home ownership actually is.
Is home ownership an interest only loan, where the borrower takes out a  125% LTV suckers loan? On their dream property, in order to not have to put anything down?
Is home ownership a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. With the stabibilty in knowing what your monthly is never going to change over the life of the loan?
Or is home ownership when you finally pay of the mortgage, and you owe nothing more to the lender?
(I realize that there are many other financial instruments that we could list concerning housing. But for the sake of argument, I believe that these three represent a solid scale on which to reflect.)
So back to the question at hand. Which of these represent the term “Home Ownership”?
Now the first one is fairly easy to rule out these days. Most everyone has seen these loans explode and so lets just scratch it off the list.
The second one, is probably what the American populace would define as home ownership. But for now, everyone who is reading should be realizing that when you take out a loan on a home, it is actually the bank’s and not yours. So scratch number two.
At this point, most folks would settle on the definition of home ownership. Which is when you own the deed/note flat out, owing nothing to any lender. But if that were the case, then this post would be over. And my take is that most people forget about one very important aspect.
Taxes.
Yeah, good ol’ taxes. And here is where I reason that you never truly own your home. That at any point, the goverment can come and weasel your property away from you. And don’t give me the I have rights bull crap. This only goes as far as the illusion’s need. And if the need is great enough, the illusion falls right along with your rights. It is also my belief that the government is going to do whatever it can to increase taxes over the next decade (just the next decade?). I mean, face it, our nation is broke. We owe a crap load, to a lot of people.
But the land, the land is the real value!
Heh, right, the land. Is it on anything of value that can be sold on the world stage? If not, then I really don’t want the “value”. Especially the taxes that come with it.
So what I have been doing personally is realigning my goals. Understanding that a home, in an of itself, is a depreciating asset at best. And at worst, a depreciating liability when the note is held by a lender. At some point, you will have to invest your reserves into either fixing and maintaining, or all together rebuilding the home (disturbingly similar to a car, no?). And I do not want to be owned by my things. I will not sacrafice myself and my families’ opporutnites in order to make the pipe dream of home ownership into a ball and chain reality.

Its ok, I was there too. For a long time, I hoped and schemed that I could own a home with some property some day. But after spending a exorbinate amount of time (some may even call it obsessing) researching Real Estate, I know that it is an impossible dream. And I see the world, and especially the United States of America very, very differently.

Bah” you say “I own my home! And I am damn proud of it!

And to this response, I would argue that there is already a profusion of subterfuge about the very definition. So first we have to quantify what home ownership actually is.

  1. Is home ownership an interest only loan, where the borrower takes out a  125% LTV suckers loan in order to not have to put any cash down? (On their dream property of course)
  2. Is home ownership a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. With the stability in knowing what your monthly is never going to change over the life of the loan?
  3. Or is home ownership when you finally pay of the mortgage, and you owe nothing more to the lender?

(I realize that there are many other financial instruments that we could list concerning housing. But for the sake of argument, I believe that these three represent a solid scale on which to reflect)

So back to the question at hand. Which of these best represent the term “Home Ownership”?

Now the first one is fairly easy to rule out these days. Most everyone reading this has seen these loans explode. Either by watching family or friends, or experiencing it themselves. And so lets just scratch it off the list.

The second one, is probably what the American populace would define as home ownership. But for now, everyone who is reading needs to understand that when you take out a loan on a home, it is actually the bank’s and not yours. So scratch number two.

At this point, most folks would settle on the definition of home ownership. Which is when you own the deed flat out, owing nothing to any lender. But if that were the case, then this post would be over. And my take is that most people forget about one very important aspect.

Taxes.

Yeah, good ol’ taxes.

And with taxes in mind, here is where I reason that you never truly own your home. That at any point, the goverment can and will come and weasel your property away from you. And don’t give me the I have rights bull crap. These illusionary rights only go as far as their (the government’s) need. And if the need is great, the illusion falls right along with your rights.

But the land, even despite the taxes, the land is the real value!

Heh, right, the land. Is it on anything of value that can be sold on the world stage? If not, then I really don’t want the “value”. Especially the taxes that come with it. It is also my belief that the government is going to do whatever it can to increase taxes over the next decade (just the next decade?). I mean, face it, our nation is broke. We owe a crap load, to a lot of people.

But don’t worry, it is nothing to be afraid of, you just need to understand it. Once you realize that with most current home purchases you are only buying the “right” to further taxation, you are good.

I mean, think of it this way. Do you think I sat there after my brother died thinking

“Man, I am glad that Jaye got to see our new place before he passed away!”

Hell no!!!

I was happy that we had the money to make memories with him by going on trips and other awesome adventures through out his life.

And so the target must be ”buying” a home when it becomes less expensive than renting while projecting future tax increases into the model. Along with the understanding that a home, in an of itself, is a depreciating asset at best. And at worst, a depreciating liability when the note is held by a lender. At some point, you will have to invest your reserves into either fixing and maintaining, or all together rebuilding the home (disturbingly similar to a car, no?). And even with this, you must know emotionally that it will never be truly yours. And this is a good thing.

I personally do not want to be owned by my things. I will not sacrifice myself and my families’ opportunities in order to make the pipe dream of home ownership into a ball and chain reality. I plan on using my surplus cash to MAKE MEMORIES!!! That is the real value.

Despite these current beliefs, I am always open to new ideas. Because you can’t learn something new if you are not willing to listen right? And I appreciate people’s thoughts, even if I don’t always agree. So I would be happy to hear other’s perspective on this. And so I leave you with this.

“Why do you personally want to own a home?”

Copyright © Jared Folkins
Programming, Computers, Writing, Economics, and Life

Powered by WordPress