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How to calculate the true cost of Real Estate

I have several articles that you probably should read concerning real estate, here and here.

Now for a long while (over 6 years) I have been bearish on RE. For those who may not understand the term bearish, it pretty much means that I think that purchasing a property has NOT been a good move. But things are changing.

Take these homes for example.

Some things I know after researching the homes using DIAL and the CLERKS records are.

  • They are both short sales
  • They are right next to each other
  • They were built for $106k in 1996.
  • Annual tax is around $2k

Now how can we distinguish if this is a good deal? Well lets lay some ground work.

I currently rent a crappier home than either of these for $775 a month. So if my net monthly cost is less than $775 a month, this tells me that I should consider “buying” a home. So I go to bankrate.com and open up their mortgage calculator.

The homes are asking $89k, and I would put down roughly $20k in cash. Making the loan amount $69k. And with a 15 year fixed and good credit, you should be able to pull close to 4.5% on the interest. You can see that the monthly payment is then $527.85. This may lead you to think “Jared, you would be saving $250 dollars a month, what is stopping you?” and that is a reasonable question.

If you look up the properties in DIAL, you will see that the annual taxes due on the homes is roughly $2k. Dividing that by 12 gives you your monthly tax rate at $166 a month.

$527.85 + $166 = $693.85

Monthly Mortgage Payment + Monthly Tax Rate = $693.85

Which doesn’t look quite as attractive, but is still interesting. Finally you should calculate maintenance costs. Which most people say the bare minimum is 1% of the purchase price. Realistically, I think we probably should go with 2-3% of the purchase price for these older homes, but for the sake of this post, we will just use 1%. 1% of $89k is…$890 which we will divide by 12 to get our monthly maintenance cost. $74.16.

$527.85 + $166 + $71.16 = 765.01

Monthly Mortgage Payment + Monthly Tax Rate + Monthly Maintenance Cost = $765.01

Yes, this looks really attractive, but I also want to add the transaction cost (The amount you pay in fees to the RE agent, Mortgage broker). I will have to guess a little bit here, if a real estate agent can shed some light I would appreciate it. So lets say that the total fees paid, is roughly 7% of the purchase price.

$89k x .07 = $6230

Now divide $6230 by how many months you will have the mortgage loan for. In our case, it is 180 months.

$6230 / 180 months = $34.61

Keep in mind that if you roll any of the fees into the loan, then you will pay interest on them.

$527.85 + $166 + $71.16 + $34.61 = $799.62

Monthly Mortgage Payment + Monthly Tax Rate + Monthly Maintenance Cost + Monthly Transaction Cost = $799.62

This is the basic math I use to figure out if I really am getting a deal or not. The interesting thing here, is that an investor could potentially buy this place. I mean they could maybe rent it for $850. So they would make ($577.85 x 12) $6934.12 annually on a $89k purchase. Roughly 7% +/-. Not a terrible investment using this math.

I did call about these homes, supposedly they have several offers. Thing is, with over 400 Notice of Defaults in January, we all know that there is plenty of inventory. Meaning that there is absolutely no freakin rush to “buy” a home.

Anyway, just some thoughts for people to consider before they purchase and please comment if I missed something.

Shadows lurking

I read Tim Duy’s post “It’s Not About Interest Rates Yet” and Tim left me in a deep think state. As Tim points out, the government program to buy Mortgage Backed Securities is set to end. But it now sounds like they may (surprise, surprise) extend the program. And reading this, it was yet further confirmation to one of my key beliefs about Real Estate. You see, many people do not seem to realize the scale of  government intervention with the National Real Estate market. Others that are in the know, probably see the government as simply distorting demand. But in actuality the government IS the demand being both mouth and stomach. They are the loan holder, the real estate buyer, and everything in between. And with the government at the center of housing, the inflated prices are just another form of shadow tax. One that no person is able to articulate or describe to their friends. Because we as tax payers are conditioned to believe that taxation happens mainly on our pay check or in the annual ritual of filing our 1040. So to those looking to buy, how can you, I, or anyone possibly hope to compete against this? In my opinion we can’t. We can only wait until the demand is gone.

Speaking of shadows, I think the word “shadow” epitomizes the MSM (Main stream media) and even the local boys (IE, Bulletin, KTVZ, etc). It is why I thoroughly inspect every nugget of supposed news that is reported. For there exists something at every major news corporation that lurks in the shadows. Just like shadow statistics, shadow inventory, shadow tax, this one is known as shadow opinion. The thought came to me a while back when reading an OP-ED piece from the Bulletin. Some where along the line, the newspaper came up with the idea that if they put the word “Opinion” in the title, it would let the reader know that the article was the opinion of the writer. Also implying to us, the readers, that the rest of the written document is news. In actuality and truth, we should know that the news is all opinion. The paper, magazine, news channel or what have you has an opinion about all things. And should you listen closely on when, if, or how things are published, you can hear the true “Voice” of any given media outlet.

But I think Duncan over at BMW is right in his ongoing subtle analysis of the MSM. The bloggers seem to have an edge on them. At least they have a much tighter voice. Usually being written by one person, or at most, a handful of people. And about a specific topic no less. Plus the scope and draw of the content is on the ground and global. As these folks can be or are, literally, all over the world. Instead of watching or reading the MSM as it regurgitates the same garbage over and over again, my opinion (heh) is that listening to the voices of many bloggers of all creeds is a much better representation of actual News.

Finally, it was funny this morning, because as I was sitting at breakfast today clicking through my RSS reader. I pulled back from the individual articles, and took a long look at all the blogs that I love to read. Suddenly an image of my father sitting at my childhood breakfast table thumbing through his paper filled my thoughts. This struck me, because I know that this will be an image that my daughter will never have.

Internet services for a nerd in Central Oregon?

Currently this blog along with some of my other projects are on a shared hosting platform. As some of my ideas get crazier and crazier, I realize that I need to compile several of the dependencies myself and this has been extremely problematic with my shared host. So what solutions do local geeks use?

Do you self host with a reserved static IP?
Do you collocate at a facility?
Do you rent a dedicated server?

Comments or emails are welcome and thanks in advance!

jared.folkins[at]gmail[dot]com

Top 5 Bend blog predictions for 2010

Everywhere you turn this time of year, you have people making predictions. They are all interesting, but after reading them I have to laugh. One could no sooner hit a mosquito with a bb-gun then predict anything accurately (And in these economic times no less). So it becomes a pathetic guessing game. And with that, here are my simple guesses for 2010. And I am picking on the locals, who I hope realize that all this snark is a compliment.

best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever had
This year, our much beloved Duncan McGeary will take a vacation from both Blogging and Work (OMG!?! I know right!). Oddly enough reports start coming in from FoxNews CNN MSNBC reliable news sources that Hell has frozen over. Upon hearing this, Linda and Dunc decide to go take their icy holiday in Hell for a quote “Righteous ice fishing trip dude!” as well as visiting the historic set of  ”Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey”. While there, the happy couple will also learn that the best selling board game in Hell is “The Settlers of Satan” (Say-tawn), where alas, Satan always wins. Never the less, good times had by all!

UtterlyBoring
Jake Ortman will sit down at his desk, boot up his computer, open his favorite web browser, and stumble across a cold and deadly truth. There is no longer any Time to kill. So successful were his “Time Killing” posts, that Time suffered a fatal blow in 2009.  For what should have been several weeks (were Time to still be alive) Jake will find himself in a near anemic stupor. But finally,  Jake will set into motion a new diabolical plan. Being both a Blogger and a fan of  phonetics, he will start off on a horrific killing spree with his series of “Thyme Killing” posts targeting both the spice and the Japanese band.  (Mwhahahahaha!)

BendBubble2
Seeing the failings of the Democrats to do anything worthwhile in two years and having a gift for sensing weakness, BendBubble2’s Paul-Doh shuts down his blog and announces that he is running for Jesus. “I think this is the right time for it.” Paul says when asked about his reasoning “The Dems have been pathetic and Jesus is a deity and political position that I was born for. The prophetic nature of my blog, along with my strategic use of the ‘F’ word, will easily help the transition from blogger savant to savior of souls“. Sadly the campaign poster of an Anglo-Saxon Paul-Doh, with creamy skin, blue eyes, flowing brown hair, and clothed in a blue and white robe while holding two swim-suit clad women under each arm, does nothing to garner support. (Pundits will eventually argue that it actually weakened his message)

HackBend
Jon Abernathy surprisingly rues the day “The Brew Site” was able to supply him with an all-you-can-drink alcoholic beverage buffet. In a drunken haze some time during June and while trying to sober up, he will access his HackBend blog over an unencrypted wireless network at one of the many coffee shops around Bend. The packet containing his username and password will be garnished by a 15 year old taking a break from an eighteen hour WoW marathon. The teen will then proceed to hack “HackBend” leaving the message “You’ve been h@x0r’d!!! All your base are belong to us!on the index page of HackBend’s site. Oh the irony!

My Back Pages
After seeing Avatar in 3D, Jesse Felder makes a bullish move and goes long on Pandora. “I believe that the unobtanium stock pile that exists beneath the surface of Pandora is where the market is headed” Jesse will state on record. He will then go on to research the world of Pandora, even going as far as calling James Cameron to ask for insider tips on when “The Company” will IPO and release their market shattering quarterly. James’ people will eventually leave a brief voicemail message that states “Dude, we realize that the movie contains ground breaking CGI and sweet 3D cinematography leading to the very edge of realism, but thats all it was, a movie.”

Congrats to everyone who made it in the Top 5 this year, and a happy holidays to all!

-peace

Copyright © Jared Folkins
Programming, Computers, Writing, Economics, and Life

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