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Mortgage rates arisin’

There is a lot of speculation that mortgage rates will rise above 6% once the Government’s different programs run their course (TARP, $8000 New Home Buyer Credit, etc) and financial institutions stop their foolish purchasing. Believe me, this is a good thing. Especially if you have been saving cash to buy a home. High interest rates make everyone’s cash in the transaction more valuable. And reading articles like the one below are indicating exactly that. Now, whether or not the Government steps in with something new to prop things up is anyone’s guess. But if they don’t…watch out. Housing prices would have no where else to go.

LINK

MORTGAGE FINANCING

FHFA reducing Fannie, Freddie portfolios

The federal regulator in charge of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said Tuesday that the mortgage finance giants would not be taking on additional measures to bring down interest rates on home loans as other government programs to stimulate the housing market expire.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency said it is committed to reducing the companies’ mortgage portfolios and does not expect the firms “to be substantial buyers or sellers of mortgages.” The agency said it expects private investors will step in as other government initiatives, such as the Federal Reserve’s trillion-dollar mortgage-acquisition program, wind down.

– Zachary A. Goldfarb

The scary part is that more and more of my friends are walking away from their homes. And this downward pressure on home prices will incite more debt slaves home owners to do just that. Walk away. So where does it stop?

(Nerd) Mechanize & Javascript

This is from the mechanize site, wish I would have read it before I started.

Since Javascript is completely visible to the client, it cannot be used to prevent a scraper from following links. But it can make life difficult, and until someone writes a Javascript interpreter for Perl or a Mechanize clone to control Firefox, there will be no general solution. But if you want to scrape specific pages, then a solution is always possible.

One typical use of Javascript is to perform argument checking before posting to the server. The URL you want is probably just buried in the Javascript function. Do a regular expression match on $mech->content() to find the link that you want and $mech->get it directly (this assumes that you know what you are looking for in advance).

In more difficult cases, the Javascript is used for URL mangling to satisfy the needs of some middleware. In this case you need to figure out what the Javascript is doing (why are these URLs always really long?). There is probably some function with one or more arguments which calculates the new URL. Step one: using your favorite browser, get the before and after URLs and save them to files. Edit each file, converting the the argument separators (‘?’, ‘&’ or ‘;’) into newlines. Now it is easy to use diff or comm to find out what Javascript did to the URL. Step 2 – find the function call which created the URL – you will need to parse and interpret its argument list. Using the Javascript Debugger Extension for Firefox may help with the analysis. At this point, it is fairly trivial to write your own function which emulates the Javascript for the pages you want to process.

Here’s annother approach that answers the question, “It works in Firefox, but why not Mech?” Everything the web server knows about the client is present in the HTTP request. If two requests are identical, the results should be identical. So the real question is “What is different between the mech request and the Firefox request?”

The Firefox extension “Tamper Data” is an effective tool for examining the headers of the requests to the server. Compare that with what LWP is sending. Once the two are identical, the action of the server should be the same as well.

I say “should”, because this is an oversimplification – some values are naturally unique, e.g. a SessionID, but if a SessionID is present, that is probably sufficient, even though the value will be different between the LWP request and the Firefox request. The server could use the session to store information which is troublesome, but that’s not the first place to look (and highly unlikely to be relevant when you are requesting the login page of your site).

Generally the problem is to be found in missing or incorrect POSTDATA arguments, Cookies, User-Agents, Accepts, etc. If you are using mech, then redirects and cookies should not be a problem, but are listed here for completeness. If you are missing headers, $mech->add_header can be used to add the headers that you need.

LINK

Bend Oregon Real Estate and why it holds

The other day, I was talking with a good buddy. And like always, economics and housing came up in the conversation.

“Jared” he started “I was speaking with my wife-“ stroking his thick beard recalling as he went. “-and you know how you told me your annual wage? Is that just your wage?”

I nodded.

“Well, why don’t you go and negotiate yourself into a home? I know you’re smart. But you can’t put your life on hold just to get the lowest home price.” Our conversation moved itself forward from there. But it got me thinking.

Am I putting my life on hold?

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Let my dataset change your mindset

If you follow the link provided. It will take you to a brilliant video by Hans Rosling. My hope, is that anyone watching at least begins to understand the power of data. Maybe not the exact method to manipulate the stuff, but at least the desire to know more about it.

This video is quite timely for me. For I have thought long and hard about putting together a series of posts on data analysis. Particularly on the work I have done in looking at the Deschutes County Clerks Data.

For those of you who don’t know. In the fall of 2007 I created a program that went to the county website and would pull public records and sales data concerning housing. It would throw this data into a usable database.  And I would use this data to educate family and friends on when our housing bubble was started, and how bad it really was.

I built a small website with this data, but stopped my work on it because of several complex reasons.

Anyway, if people are interested in how to analyze data, or would appreciate an ongoing conversation about it, let me know.

Copyright © Jared Folkins
Programming, Computers, Writing, Economics, and Life

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