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Getting old, is getting old

On the 8th I turned the big two-nine! And my wife organized quite a good BBQ and party for me. My parents even drove the distance to celebrate with us. It was a rip roaring good time.

There was though, one odd occurrence that happened over the course of my parents visit. It was something my Dad said. And at first, I didn’t really pay any attention. It wasn’t until a friend asked me.

“Do you feel any older?”

That I found that I could finally articulate my thoughts, and I was able to share about my Dad with my friend.

I said that as we (mom,dad,jaimi,i) were sitting around playing a board game,  Dad said;

“I’m having a hard time using my thumbs now days, because of arthritis”

And I sat shocked, because I have never heard my Dad complain or comment about this topic. EVER! After everyone went to bed, I ended up just lying there next to Jaimi, thinking about my Dad’s thumbs.

There are a lot of great memories in those thumbs. Magical moments that couldn’t have been created without them. How my Dad used his thumbs on the handle of a lathing tool as he did some wood working, pressing down on the neck of his classical guitar, or on the back of his clarinet as he plays, or lifting Jaye high over his head and dropping him on our childhood bed to a room full of laughter, smiles, and squealing. And with their loss on the horizon, I felt old as well as responsible for my family. And I thought

“Age is the metronome to a song that shall never be repeated”

I guess this year, the gift of responsibility was what I really received. And though some would curse it, or run from it, I don’t mind. Not one bit.

-peace

Canadian Housing Bubble and how to short it

canadian housing bubbleRecently I went to a PHP programming conference in Chicago, Illinois and was able to sit next to a Canadian businessman on our flight home. We discussed many things and some how we ended up on the U.S housing bubble.

“How much have homes appreciated in value where you live?” I asked.

“Well, I sold a home in early 2000 for about $180k” he started. “Now that same home, with maybe $300k worth of upgrades would go for $700k-$800k”

Uh oh, I thought strike one

I proceeded to tell him about Bend and how at our height, the median was around $400k.

“What is it now?” he asked.

“Well, I think last month the median was around $180k”

The businessman sat there, mouth agape, stunned.

“Glad that isn’t happening up north, I’d be in trouble.  I think homes in Canada are going to just level off in large YoY appreciataion because they were so cheap before”

strike two I thought.

“Well why couldn’t it happen with Canada also?” I asked directly.

He looked at me, and with conviction, said “Well, Canada is different…” and proceeded to tell me how.

Strike three I thought this thing is toast

And then today I read this article from mish

Imagine, 68% of your disposable income being spent on housing costs with the remaining disposable income likely being spent on their favorite Top Ramen and KD dinners. This is insane as well as unsustainable. It’s funny that many Canadians seems to think that the 49th parallel has magically created immunity from a housing bust that in their minds is exclusive to the United States. I can’t tell you how many times friends and acquaintances say that Canada’s banks are sound and there was no sub-prime lending and it just can’t happen here. I’m quick to remind them that the loss of one income from a two income family will in essence convert a low credit risk to a poor credit risk akin to that of a sub-prime borrower real fast. Now, multiply this my hundreds of thousands if not millions of borrows and we too have a major problem in Canada no different from that of the US. Wishful thinking really. The proof’s in the pudding and this puddings going to bring a dose of reality to those that are living in fantasy land, way beyond their means and who apparently have missed the global financial crisis that’s been gaining traction and intensity since August 2007.

We’re not only “Hosers” in Canada but we’re royally Hosed as well!!

Robert Clegg, JD, LL.M
Ombudsman, University of Calgary
Calgary, Alberta

Now if only I could figure out how to short the housing mess that we all know is coming to Canada, I’d be insanely rich.

-peace

Agapage : A web startup

Agapage LogoWow!

As I write this, it is close to midnight, and this has been a common work hour for these last four months. I can’t believe that Agapage is finally here, that it is finally launching. A lot of work went into this endeavour and it seems surreal to sit here and watch as something you poured your heart into, has been brought to life.

There are a lot of people who made it happen, a lot of people who cared and suggested. Who steered and paved the way for Agapage’s completion. I am amazed and humbled that all these people believed in me.

If you are wondering what Agapage is, let me share.

* * *

Concept:

So I was sitting in Church back in February, when the Children’s minister came up on stage. She mentioned that the Church’s current 60 pager paging system (retailing for $3k) was no longer adequate. The church had grown and needed about 100 more pagers to meet its need. Unfortunately, the pagers cost about $90 a piece (totaling $9k).

Pagers are used to notify parents when their child is having an issue. It also helps the flow of the whole church service by finding parents easily.

For the rest of the service, my brain was in a trance. It started working on a solution, and that night I began coding the beginnings of it. I went to sleep wanting to think of a good name, and like clockwork, I awoke with the “a good name”. By the end of that week I had a semi-functional program (though it looked like crap), and thus Agapage* was born.

*Agapage is a combination of two words. Agape is the Greek word for unconditional love and page just means “to notify or make known”

So what does Agapage do?

Well, it allows the church or organization to have their own personal website.  And at their site, the organization members will register for an account (Same sign up process as in most online services). Once their account is created, the user will add all their parent or guardian information (Image, First Name, Last Name , Cell Phone Number), and they will add all their children’s information (Image, First Name, Last Name). Once all the information is filled out, the user will only have to go back into the system for routine maintenance.

Here is where it gets interesting. The staff at the church can log in, and if their credentials are correct, can now SEARCH for a child, pull up their record, and click the PAGE button. It will send a txt message to ALL the Guardian’s cell phones attached to the child. As the parent, you could also attach grandma, grandpa, auntie or uncle, and it would PAGE everyone.

Benefits:

  1. No hardware loss, theft, or maintenance. Basically the Organization doesn’t have to buy batteries or charge them, or order pager replacements.
  2. Piggy backs onto existing infrastructure. Most churches have laptops and wireless, and according to SNL Kagan, a leading mobile research firm. the U.S.A will reach 100% market saturation by 2013. That is one cell phone for every man, woman, and child. This affirms the thought that most families will have at least, 1 cell phone.
  3. Scalability
  4. No risk to the organization
  5. Not limited by distance
  6. Custom txt messages can be sent so that the Guardian gets some idea of what exactly is going on
  7. Pictures can be uploaded by the members so when staff or volunteers use Agapage to search, they can actually see who they will be paging

Standard System:

Startup = $3000
Annual maintenance = ($200 +/- N%) batteries and replacement units
Growth = ($90 +/- N%) per additional unit as well as annual maintenance going up rapidly

Total = Anitoch’s projected cost in just under 4 years of existence > $10k

Scalability:

I was reading about a large church in the Detroit area, they grew from 1997-2005. At it’s height, the church attendance was over 4000 people. I speculate their paging system (600-800 pagers) would easily have cost them $50k over that 7 year period. Now the church is in decline because there is a mass exodus from the area as people leave in search of jobs. The church’s numbers are way way way down. With Agapage, instead of having the church’s money tied up in a large piece of infrastructure, they could just scale back their usage and pay less.

And it works in the other direction, seamlessly scaling as your Organization grows.

Basic Goals:

  1. My church needs it, so I know it will get used if only by one organization
  2. Resume / Portfolio weight
  3. Low startup cost and NO debt (If I wasn’t a programmer this would not be the case)
  4. Potential to show a proof of concept along with case study and prove/see if there actually is a NEED in the world

* * *

So that is Agapage, and I hope anyone or organization that needs it, will see it’s value. The best thing is that I am saving people a lot of money in a recessionary environment, while also offering a superior product. I feel really good about that.

-jared

http://www.agapage.com

Why Olark.com is better than their competitors

So I have been pretty quiet about it for the last couple of months, but I have a new venture coming out that I believe will hopefully make a few waves. In looking at ways to better my customer support, I happened across a sweet chat widget called Olark.

Basically the widget sits in the corner of your site (like most do) and allows anyone who visits your site to chat with you via a standard IM client (iChat, Adium, Gtalk, etc…). It will hopefully help keep current customers happy, and maybe convert a few people who would otherwise have clicked away.

At this point you may be asking “Well what makes them better?” and I could easily say that what makes them better is;

  • Olark took less than 5 minutes to install
  • Olark allows me to customize my chat widget to match the colors of my site
  • Olark saves transcripts of my sessions for further review
  • Olark encrypts my chat sessions
  • Olark is very affordable

But I won’t. Because that is not what makes them better. You see, what makes them better in my opinion is their awesome customer support.

It began with a follow-up question. Now to be clear, I had visited Olark.com, clicked in their very own Olark widget, running on their very own site, got no response, so I left. I figured that would be the end of it, but then a guy named Matt shoots me the following email.

Hi – I saw you just signed up for olark.com, let me know if there is anything I can do to help

-Matt

Awesome! A dialogue has begun.

So our correspondence went on for several days. And it could have been awkward, it could have gone bad, but no, Olark’s group have a very deft touch at helping out their customers. At one point I guess I was even speaking with one of the co-founders, and the exchange ended up going so well that he wrote.

Awesome, we definitely buy into the “smaller is better” mantra.  Most of our customers are small businesses like us in fact :)   If you ever stop by the SF bay area drop us a line.

cheers,
Roland

How sweet is that? I seem to have made some friends!

So to sum this up, you could use Olark for all the reasons I listed above. But the reason that you should use Olark is because they are actually human beings and treat you like a person and not a paycheck.

-kudos boys

jared

Copyright © Jared Folkins
Programming, Computers, Writing, Economics, and Life

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